鄂志寰：评估中美贸易摩擦对人民币汇率的影响
最近美国实施的一系列贸易保护主义措施使得中美之间在沟通和谈判方面遇到了许多困难，IMI学术委员、中银香港首席经济学家鄂志寰认为随着贸易摩擦的发展人民币供求关系将出现新变化，贸易战可能通过三个渠道影响人民币汇率：首先在贸易方面，贸易摩擦的影响首先反映在商品出口上，但中国对美出口占中国GDP百分比仍有限。其次是在资金流动方面，中国企业在美的直接投资、兼并和收购可能会在今年下降。最后，在金融市场方面，投资者避险情绪蔓延，最新措施对全球股票市场和债券市场都产生了巨大影响，投资者担心贸易战下人民币大幅贬值。总结上述渠道，中美贸易摩擦将影响中国对美出口，产生人民币贬值压力。然而，中国在美国的投资将相应下降，在一定程度上抵消了贸易账户下外汇供需动态的影响。因此，有必要应对金融市场情绪对人民币汇率的负面影响。
以下是全文内容：
Evaluating the Impacts of China-US Trade Frictions on the RMB’s Exchange Rate
Dr. Zhihuan E
Chief Economist, Bank of China (Hong Kong)
Recently, the US is carrying out a series of trade protectionist measures, and there are rising difficulties in communication and negotiation between China and the US. The trade frictions manifest “America First” protectionism, underpinned by economic and social issues. Therefore, the trade frictions may continue to evolve for an extended period of time, reflecting its long-term and complex characteristics. The fast-changing international trade environment not only hits confidence in global financial markets but also brings uncertainty to global economic growth. Following the developments of trade frictions, there will be new changes in supply and demand for the RMB, accelerating the RMB’s exchange rate adjustment. Trade frictions and the outlook of trade war could influence the RMB’s exchange rate via three channels:
1
In terms of trade
The impact of trade frictions on the RMB’s exchange rate is first reflected in merchandize exports. In the worst case scenario, USD 50 billion worth of exported goods to the US will be subject to 25% tariff, while USD 200 billion worth of goods will be subject to 10% tariff. On top of this, the US will impose additional 10% tariff on another USD 200 billion worth of goods. In other words, USD 450 billion worth of exported goods will be affected, involving tariff of USD 52.5 billion.
In June 2018, China’s exports in terms of USD grew 11.3% year-over-year, or 1 percentage point lower than the same period last year. It is estimated that the impacts of trade war on China’s exports to the US will gradually emerge in the second half of 2018.
Nevertheless, exports to the US as a percentage of Chinese GDP is still limited. According to the US Department of Commerce, China’s exports to the US amounted to USD 505.6 billion in 2017, accounting for 4.13% of China’s GDP. Meanwhile, statistics from China Customs showed that exports to the US amounted to RMB 2,910.3 billion, accounting for 3.52% of GDP. In light of this, the impact of exports adjustment in this certain area on China’s economic performance will be limited.
2
In terms of capital flow
The US Department of Treasury is reportedly set to announce investment restrictions on Chinese enterprises. Direct investments, mergers and acquisitions by Chinese enterprises in the US may decline this year. The US aims to maintain its influence in global industrial landscape by launching a trade war. Many targeted products subject to the latest tariffs worth USD 50 billion come from 10 key priority sectors in “Made in China 2025” program, including information technology, robotic, aviation and aircraft components, energy saving and new energy vehicles, electrical generation equipment, pharmaceuticals and medical devices, etc., reflecting the US’s concern on global industrial landscape in the next 5 to 10 years. Since the global supply chain has been highly integrated, the impacts of tariff on each specific industry will be complex and changing.
3
In terms of financial markets
Investors’ risk-off sentiment continues to spread following the evolvement of trade frictions between China and the US, and global financial markets are volatile. The US 10-year treasury yield once retreated, reflecting influx of funds into the bond market for risk aversion. Also, there were large equity market corrections across Europe and Asian emerging markets. Compared with previous trade protectionist measures imposed by the US, the latest measures have tremendous impacts on equity markets, bond markets and foreign exchange markets globally. It shows that financial markets pay attention to the trade frictions between China and the US and worry about sizeable deprecation of the RMB due to the trade war.
4
The RMB’s fluctuation will follow trends
To summarize the three aforementioned channels, trade frictions between China and the US will affect China’s exports to the US, resulting in depreciation pressure for the RMB. However, Chinese investments in the US will drop accordingly, offsetting to some extent the impact of foreign exchange supply-demand dynamics under trade accounts. Therefore, it is necessary to cope with negative impacts on the RMB’s exchange rate arising from financial market sentiment.
With reference to historical experience of trade war between the US and Japan, the US had its largest trade deficits with Japan between the 70s and 80s in the last century. The US successively initiated trade disputes on textile, steel and iron, automobiles and semiconductor with Japan. Furthermore, the US requested Japan to restrict exports growth to the US, open its market, and increase imports. Consequently, the US trade deficits with Japan gradually narrowed from 1.2% of its nominal GDP to 0.3%. Meanwhile, the USD experienced sizeable depreciation against the JPY in 1971 and 1985. From July 1971 to October 1978, the value of the Japanese Yen to one US Dollar appreciated from JPY 360 to JPY 180, an appreciation of 100% in 87 months. Subsequently from February 1985 to April 1995, the Japanese Yen appreciated further by 208% from JPY 259 to JPY 84 in 122 months. The US and Japan jointly promoted JPY internationalization while the JPY appreciated substantially.
Lessons from the US-Japan trade war shows that reducing bilateral trade surplus is the focus of trade war. Apparently, there is no room and political intention for depreciating the currency of trade surplus nation in order to enhance export competitiveness. On the contrary, if there is a vicious cycle between persistent depreciation of the currency and capital outflows, there will be adverse effects on the growth of investments and consumption. It may even trigger extensive economic and financial risks.
At present, economic fundamentals play a leading role in determining the RMB‘s exchange rate. China’s economy remains stable, with current account surplus maintaining at a sustainable level of 1.2% of GDP, which is neutral on the RMB’s exchange rate. However, the influence of cross-border capital flow under capital account will gradually surpass that of current account, becoming a dominant factor in the RMB’s exchange rate. Since capital flow factor becomes increasingly important in determining the RMB‘s exchange rate, the growth of capital flow in financial markets, instead of direct investment, will gradually become an important variable in the trend of the RMB. In addition, the strength and weakness of the dollar index remain a major external factor for the RMB’s exchange rate adjustment. The USD depreciated in early 2018 but rebounded recently. The trend of the RMB against the USD will switch from appreciation to fluctuation, but the magnitude of fluctuation will be less than that of the USD. Currently, the RMB is back to the level early this year.
For a period of time in future, the trend of the RMB’s exchange rate will be mainly determined by the supply-demand dynamics in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate fixing mechanism will continue to strength the flexibility of the RMB’s exchange rate, which will remain basically stable at a reasonable and equilibrium level.
编辑 白若云 张若兰
审校 田雯
监制 朱霜霜
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